Based on BNEF, the costs registered this 12 months are a median throughout a number of battery end-uses, together with various kinds of electrical autos, buses and stationary storage initiatives.
“For battery electrical automobile (BEV) packs, particularly, costs have been $118/kWh on a volume-weighted common foundation in 2021. On the cell stage, common BEV costs have been simply $97/kWh,” the doc states. “This means that on common, cells account for 82% of the entire pack worth. Over the previous two years, the cell-to-pack value ratio has diverged from the normal 70:30 break up, a results of adjustments to pack design, such because the introduction of cell-to-pack designs.”
The analyst’s knowledge present that on a regional foundation, battery pack costs have been the most cost effective in China, at $111/kWh. Packs within the US and Europe, however, have been 40% and 60% larger, respectively.
Within the view of BNEF’s specialists, larger costs mirror the relative immaturity of the western markets, the various vary of purposes and, for the upper finish of the vary, low quantity and bespoke orders.
Regardless of the regional variations, the truth is that costs saved falling in 2021. The researcher recognized that one of many causes behind the drop has been the elevated adoption of the low-cost lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode chemistry, and the lowered curiosity of OEMs within the expensive cobalt in nickel-base cathodes.
“On common, LFP cells have been nearly 30% cheaper than NMC cells in 2021,” the report reads. “Nonetheless, even low-cost chemistries like LFP, which is especially uncovered to lithium carbonate costs, have felt the chew of rising prices all through the provision chain. Since September, Chinese language producers have raised LFP costs by between 10-20%.”
Given this state of affairs and based mostly on historic tendencies, BNEF’s 2021 Battery Worth Survey predicts that by 2024 common pack costs ought to be beneath $100/kWh.
For the London-based agency, it’s at round this worth level that automakers ought to be capable to produce and promote mass-market EVs on the similar worth and with the identical margin as inside combustion autos in some markets. The prediction assumes no subsidies can be found and acknowledges that precise pricing methods will range by automaker and geography.
Within the close to time period, nonetheless, BNEF expects larger uncooked materials costs to affect common pack costs, which might rise to $135/kWh in 2022 in nominal phrases. If there aren’t another enhancements that may mitigate this affect, the analyst believes that the purpose at which costs fall beneath $100/kWh may very well be pushed again by two years, a improvement that might affect EV affordability or producers’ margins and will damage the economics of vitality storage initiatives.
“Though battery costs fell total throughout 2021, within the second half of the 12 months costs have been rising. We estimate that on common the worth of an NMC (811) cell is $10/kWh larger within the fourth quarter than it was within the first three months of the 12 months, with costs now closing in on $110/kWh,” James Frith, lead creator of the report, mentioned in a media assertion. “This creates a tricky setting for automakers, notably these in Europe, which have to extend EV gross sales with a purpose to meet common fleet emissions requirements. These automakers could now have to select between lowering their margins or passing prices on, on the threat of putting consumers off buying an EV.”
Costs for lithium have risen this 12 months on account of constraints inside international provide chains, rising demand in China and Europe and the current manufacturing curbs in China. But, BNEF expects these points to be resolved by Q1 2022, which ought to assist ease lithium costs.
“The trail to reaching $100/kWh is evident, though the timing now seems extra unsure,” the file states.